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How does the downgrade of the US credit rating impact the market outlook? (24 June 2025)

On 16 May 2025, Moody's downgraded the US Government's senior unsecured rating from AAA to Aa1. The outlook is now stable, though previously negative.

It is important to recognise that Moody’s is just joining its peers (S&P and Fitch) in downgrading the US Treasury (UST) to AA+, Aa1, AA+ and therefore can be seen as ‘catching up’ with the others.

In the current climate of fiscal uncertainty and the prospects of tax cuts and reduced receipts, it is not surprising perhaps that Moody’s has chosen this point to admit that the US no longer warrants the highest rating. Many other countries have also lost the highest rating in recent years as debt migrated to sovereign balance sheets.

The downgrade, then, was almost certainly discounted. Yield curves have already steepened and sovereign bond yields from Japan to Germany (and the US) have maintained much higher average levels than in the post-Global Financial Crisis era.

Other bond markets could gain a comparative advantage from the uncertainty in the UST, although as the UST is a global benchmark, other curves are more likely to follow.

UST yields have had very little change since Moody’s downgrade – in fact they're a little lower – demonstrating that the downgrade in itself is probably not something that has impacted market pricing.


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Issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Important notes

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  • Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of financial instruments, in particular stocks and shares, and any income from such financial instruments, may go down as well as up. For further details including the product features and risks involved, please refer to the relevant MPF Scheme Brochure.